The Greensheet: January 2025

Product Updates

CPU

• AMD Server CPU Prices Rise, Desktop CPU Prices Drop: Prices for AMD’s 4th Gen Genoa server CPUs are expected to increase this quarter. Meanwhile, desktop CPU pricing for the 9800X3D is anticipated to decrease with the launch of the 9950X3D at the end of January.
• Sapphire Rapids’ Lead Times Extend: Lead times for Sapphire Rapids' XCC and MCC models are rising as customers report tight supply.
• Raptor Lake Mobile CPUs Face Tight Supply: Supply for Intel’s 13th Gen Raptor Lake mobile CPUs, including 1340P, 1360P, and 13620H, remains challenged. Anticipatory pull-ins around geopolitical events have further tightened supply, with constraints expected through May.

GPU

• Jetson Orin NX 16GB Supply Issues: Lead times have stretched to 12-16 weeks, with backlogs from October still unresolved. A sudden spike in demand is driving supply constraints, and stock availability remains limited, with some suppliers ceasing quotes until March. Despite the tight supply, the market remains focused on managing these challenges as demand stabilizes.
• Consumer GPU Supply Tightens Ahead of RTX 5090 Launch: Supply of RTX 4090 GPUs is tightening as the EOL date approaches. Many customers are hesitant to take on additional stock with the RTX 5090 launch on the horizon.
• Nvidia’s Blackwell RTX500 Launch Expected by Q2: Initial deliveries are anticipated in March or April, with supply available exclusively through bundle purchases via authorized channels. Pricing will likely be more competitive than previous transitions.  The expectation is that Nvidia will not price the newer models as high as it did when transitioning from Ampere (RTX 30 series) to Ada Lovelace (RTX 40 series), as the market reacted negatively to such a jump.
• Customers Struggle with Desktop GPU Booking Lead Times: Market intelligence sources claim that Intel’s ARC graphics series is experiencing shortages. Customers report no firm booking lead times and a need to load orders to Intel, only to be left waiting for allocation updates.
• NVIDIA ARM-Based Chip Demand Trends: Demand for NVIDIA’s ARM-based GH200 Grasshopper servers will likely surpass their x86-based systems, potentially impacting DRAM pricing. Soft demand is anticipated for Q1 2025.

RDIMM

• Increased Demand for DDR4: A significant price gap between DDR4 and DDR5 drives customers toward DDR4, especially for non-AI projects requiring lower specifications. Demand for DDR4 3200 speed modules remains strong, though supply gaps are emerging as manufacturers cut DDR4 production by 50%. Pricing is expected to increase, with reports suggesting a 17% rise in February.
• DDR5 Pricing Remains Soft: DDR5 prices are expected to fall 5–8% post-Lunar New Year. Spot prices remain below contract rates, slowing inventory turnover.
• Shifting Demand for DDR5 Speeds: Interest in 4800-speed modules is waning, with EOL notices issued for some models. Meanwhile, supply constraints continue for 6400-speed modules, tied to limited compatible CPUs (e.g., Intel Granite Rapids, AMD Turin).
• Strong Demand for High-Capacity DDR5 Modules: Demand for 96GB and 128GB DDR5 modules significantly outpaces lower-capacity options, reflecting a growing preference for high-capacity solutions.

SSD

• Q1 SSD Market Sees Steep Price Cuts: Significant downward pricing pressure is expected, with high single-digit cuts in Q1, occasionally exceeding 10%, driven by weaker end-market demand.
• Suppliers Push Discounts to Shift Stock: Direct suppliers actively offer discounts to move inventory, enticing customers to take on supply amid a deflationary environment.
• End Users Offloading Stock Ahead of Further Drops: End users are moving supply in anticipation of further price reductions, though short-term demand continues to drive frequent deals.
• Deflation Drives Regular Short-Term Deals: Despite the deflationary environment, discounts and quick-turnaround demand lead to consistent deals.
• Kioxia Prices Decline with Aggressive Cuts: Like other brands, Kioxia's pricing follows a downward trend, influenced by its recent IPO and efforts to boost revenue through sharper price reductions.
• Solidigm Exits Consumer SSD Market: Solidigm is exiting the consumer SSD market to focus exclusively on enterprise SSDs, signaling a strategic shift in product priorities.

DRAM

• Samsung Ends DDR3 Support: Samsung has stopped taking DDR3 orders to focus entirely on DDR4 production. The remaining DDR3 demand is now shifting to suppliers like SK Hynix, Micron, and emerging brands Nanya and CXMT. Chinese manufacturers capable of producing DDR4 chips are expected to drive further reductions in overall DRAM prices.
• Micron Issues Product Change Notification: Micron will end DDR4 production by December 2025, with last-time buys (LTBs) available until June 2024.
• DDR5 Market Slows and Q1 Pricing Remains Flat: SK Hynix D5 supply is slightly constrained, but this trend has not resulted in a significant surge in demand or price increases. The market for D5 modules remains soft, with flat pricing expected for Q1 as demand stabilizes and most pull-ins have occurred.

HDD

• HDD Manufacturers Prepare for AI-Driven Demand: Hard drive manufacturers are positioning themselves to meet the increased demand for larger capacities driven by AI data requirements, with bigger drives becoming essential to process the data.
• Seagate, Toshiba, and WD HDD Expansion News: Seagate, Toshiba, and Western Digital (WD) are all increasing HDD capacities with new models launching in 2025, affecting lower-capacity drives (2-8TB). Lead times for these smaller models have already increased significantly. Reports suggest that Seagate’s new pricing will take effect after the Lunar New Year and be about 15-20% for enterprise drives and 10% for desktop drives.

Capacitors and Transistors

• Kemet & Vishay Facing Longer Lead Times: Lead times for Kemet and Vishay capacitors have stretched to 20 weeks, up from 14–16 weeks. High Nvidia demand is also delaying Vishay MOSFETs, with some lead times exceeding 36 weeks. Customers are now turning to the open market for alternatives.
• Diodes MOSFET Production Slowdown: Slower production due to weak demand has extended lead times for less common parts to 18–20 weeks. Older stock may still be available, but new production is limited.
• Nichicon Capacitor Supply Disruption: A German bankruptcy has disrupted electrolytic paper supply, limiting Nichicon’s production of capacitors used in Hitachi industrial products. Key models are currently unavailable.

Manufacturer News and Company Updates

Analog Devices and Maxim Face Ongoing Supply Challenges: Lead time reliability and pricing for ADI/Linear Tech and Maxim remain problematic as Analog Devices transitions to a single authorized distributor model and its own e-commerce platform. Reports indicate previous lead time and pricing quotes are being invalidated, with price increases ranging from 10% to 30%. These changes are driving customers to explore alternative manufacturers.

Intel Faces Market Share Decline: Intel is rapidly losing market share as revenue from its data center chips continues to decline. New data centers increasingly use AMD’s ARM-based architecture and custom chip designs over Intel’s x86 chips. In the PC gaming market, devices like the Steam Deck and Lenovo Legion Go also favor AMD or ARM-based processors.

Lattice Increases Pricing Across the Board: In Q4CY24, we saw price increases from FPGA makers Xilinx and Intel/Altera. Lattice has followed suit with a 10% increase across its product portfolio, effective January 1.  Customers have reported higher inventory levels as a barrier to taking action to mitigate the impact of these changes, but interest has still been robust.

Micron Faces Delays and Rising Lead Times: Micron lead time orders face significant delays from manufacturers, with lead times stretching from 6-8 weeks to much longer. This affects distributors trying to source stock before the Lunar New Year shutdowns.

Nvidia Sets New Market Records: Nvidia set new stock market records last month ahead of CEO Jensen Huang’s CES speech, further cementing its leadership in the AI space. While the buzz around Blackwell continues to elevate the company’s status, many were eager for updates on its next-generation chip design, Rubin. However, news about Rubin will likely remain under wraps until later this year, as the chip is not expected until 2026.

Microsoft Shifts Support Strategy for Windows 10: Microsoft's plan to end support for Windows 10 in October 2025 is anticipated to drive demand for PCs as consumers upgrade their devices. However, its impact on overall market growth projections remains uncertain. The availability of licenses to extend Windows 10 support may mitigate the urgency for organizations to refresh older machines.

Sony Faces Surge in Sensor Costs and Tariff Concerns: Costs for Sony automotive sensors, especially the ISX031 model used in BYD products, have surged 2-3 times. Customers are placing increased orders to mitigate anticipated tariff hikes following the next U.S. presidential election.

Supply Chain Trends

In light of the recent U.S. election results, tariffs on certain products could rise significantly by April 2025, prompting some buyers to stock up through March 2026.

• Trump's Second Term Brings Tariff Uncertainty: Following Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, U.S. tariffs are under review, with increases more likely than reductions. Companies are bracing for potential cost hikes across electronic components.
• China Announces Export Restrictions: In early December, China implemented export restrictions on technologies with dual-use applications for civilian and military purposes, specifically aimed at the United States. This update is in addition to the ban on antimony, gallium, and germanium shipments. As the tech war continues, China may respond to 2025 U.S. tariffs with expanded restrictions on minerals used in E.V. batteries.
• Manufacturers Develop Mitigation Strategies: In anticipation of tariff changes and raw material price volatility, businesses are diversifying suppliers, increasing stockpiles, and investing in alternative sourcing to reduce reliance on China.

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